000			02935nab a22002657a 4500
999			_c8852 _d8852
005			20250625151708.0
008			240805s2024 ||||| |||| 00| 0 eng d
040			_aAFVC
100			_aTrood, Michael D. _913253
245			_aThe limits of predicting near lethal and lethal family and intimate partner violence _cMichael D. Trood, Benjamin L. Spivak, James R. P. Ogloff, and Troy E. McEwan
260			_bCRIMRXIV, _c2024
520			_aAccurate assessment of the risk of fatal family or intimate partner violence (FIPV), particularly of intimate partner homicide (IPH), has long been a clinical and research goal.  Although several risk assessments have been developed to assist in this task, limited validation methodologies in past research mean that it remains unclear whether fatal FIPV can be accurately predicted. This study aimed to address this research gap using a prospective methodology. Prediction of lethal and near lethal FIPV was tested in a full population cohort (n = 38,454) of unique perpetrator and victim dyads recorded by police over 7 months between September 2019 and March 2020 in the Australian state of Victoria. The predictive validity of an actuarial risk assessment instrument (ARAI) previously validated for general FIPV risk and of 12 widely recognized risk factors for male-to-female IPH were assessed over a 12-month follow-up period. Neither the ARAI, individual IPH risk factors, nor a model developed from the IPH risk factors, accurately predicted which dyads subsequently came to police attention for lethal or near lethal FIPV. All methods misclassified many thousands of dyads as high risk who did not have subsequently reported lethal/near lethal FIPV. These findings were attributable to both the low base rate of lethal/near lethal FIPV during the follow-up period (a universal phenomenon), and the commonality of widely recognized risk markers for male-to-female IPH in FIPV cases reported to police. These results indicate that when evaluated using a prospective design, existing assessments of FIPV homicide risk are likely to overestimate the risk of homicide in a very substantial number of cases. This suggests that a public health approach to the prevention of FIPV homicide may be of greater utility than trying to accurately identify cases at high risk of a low base rate event such as homicide. (Authors abstract). Record #8852
650			_aDOMESTIC VIOLENCE _9203
650			_aFAMILY VIOLENCE _9252
650			_aHOMICIDE _9297
650			_aINTIMATE PARTNER VIOLENCE _9431
650			_aRISK ASSESSMENT _9504
651			_aINTERNATIONAL _93624
651			_aUNITED KINGDOM _92604
700			_aSpivak, Benjamin L. _913254
700			_94355 _aOgloff, James R.P.
700			_aMcEwan, Troy E. _913255
856			_uhttps://doi.org/10.21428/cb6ab371.253db452 _zDOI: 10.21428/cb6ab371.253db452 (Open access)
942			_2ddc _cBRIEFING _hnews129