000			03108nab a22003137a 4500
999			_c8832 _d8832
005			20250625151707.0
008			240726s2024 -nz|| |||| 00| 0 eng d
040			_aAFVC
100			_910834 _aJolliffe Simpson, Apriel D.
245			_aModeling behavioral patterns of family violence aggressors _cApriel D. Jollliffe Simpson, Chaitanya Joshi and Devon L L. Polaschek
260			_bSpringer, _c2024
500			_aCrime Science, 2024, First published online, 23 July 2024
520			_aBackground setting: The presumption that family violence will repeat and escalate is embedded in practices including risk assessment and case management. However, there is limited evidence that further episodes are inevitable, or that subsequent episodes will increase in severity. Therefore, we need to better understand temporal patterns in aggressor behavior to inform how risk is conceptualized in practice. Methods: For a sample of 2115 family violence aggressors who came to police attention in Integrated Safety Response catchment areas in Aotearoa New Zealand, we collected information New Zealand Police routinely recorded about reported harm between 2018 and 2020. We used a hidden Markov model to estimate the latent (i.e., unmeasurable) states behind the information reported to police, and modeled aggressors’ movement between those states over time. Results: We identified three latent states. The first contained low or no reported harm, the second contained low probabilities of reported harm, and the third involved a high probability of reported verbal abuse and a moderate probability of reported physical violence. We identified four pathways through the latent states over the two-year follow-up period, which we called No reported harm, High reported harm, Low reported harm, and De-escalation. Conclusions: The findings add to the body of research indicating that family violence aggressors do not inevitably repeat or escalate their harmful behavior, and that a small subset of cases account for a large proportion of reported harm. This study demonstrates how information that police routinely collect can be used to estimate aggressors’ latent behavioral states and model pathways communicating the probability that they will continue to come to police attention for family violence, contributing to improved risk assessment and practice. (Authors' abstract). Record #8832
650			_aDOMESTIC VIOLENCE _9203
650			_aFAMILY VIOLENCE _9252
650			_aIntegrated Safety Response _96856
650			_aINTERVENTION _9326
650			_aINTIMATE PARTNER VIOLENCE _9431
650			_aPHYSICAL ABUSE _9439
650			_aRESEARCH METHODS _9499
650			_aRISK ASSESSMENT _9504
651			_aNEW ZEALAND _92588
700			_911591 _aJoshi, Chaitanya
700			_91925 _aPolaschek, Devon L. L.
773	0		_tCrime Science, 2024, First published online, 23 July 2024
830			_aCrime Science _913227
856			_uhttps://doi.org/10.1186/s40163-024-00218-6 _zDOI: 10.1186/s40163-024-00218-6 (Open access)
942			_2ddc _cARTICLE _hnews129