000			02695nab a22003137a 4500
999			_c7186 _d7186
005			20250625151552.0
008			210615s2021 ||||| |||| 00| 0 eng d
040			_aAFVC
100			_aLokot, Michelle _99788
245			_aThe pitfalls of modelling the effects of COVID-19 on gender-based violence : _blessons learnt and ways forward _cMichelle Lokot, Amiya Bhatia, Shirin Heidari and Amber Peterman
260			_bBMJ Journals, _c2021
500			_aBMJ Global Health, 6(5): e005739
520			_aSince early 2020, global stakeholders have highlighted the significant gendered consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, including increases in the risk of gender-based violence (GBV). Researchers have sought to inform the pandemic response through a diverse set of methodologies, including early efforts modelling anticipated increases in GBV. For example, in April 2020, a highly cited modelling effort by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) and partners projected headline global figures of 31 million additional cases of intimate partner violence due to 6 months of lockdown, and an additional 13 million child marriages by 2030. In this paper, we discuss the rationale for using modelling to make projections about GBV, and use the projections released by UNFPA to draw attention to the assumptions and biases underlying model-based projections. We raise five key critiques: (1) reducing complex issues to simplified, linear cause-effect relationships, (2) reliance on a small number of studies to generate global estimates, (3) assuming that the pandemic results in the complete service disruption for existing interventions, (4) lack of clarity in indicators used and sources of estimates, and (5) failure to account for margins of uncertainty. We argue that there is a need to consider the motivations and consequences of using modelling data as a planning tool for complex issues like GBV, and conclude by suggesting key considerations for policymakers and practitioners in using and commissioning such projections. (Authors' abstract). Record #7186
650			_aCOVID-19 _98949
650			_aDATA ANALYSIS _9181
650			_aDOMESTIC VIOLENCE _9203
650			_aINTIMATE PARTNER VIOLENCE _9431
650			_aPANDEMICS _98950
650		0	_aVIOLENCE AGAINST WOMEN _93088
651			_aINTERNATIONAL _93624
651		4	_aUNITED KINGDOM _92604
700			_aBhatia, Amiya _910072
700			_aHeidari, Shirin _910073
700			_aPeterman, Amber _98951
773	0		_tBMJ Global Health, 6(5): e005739
830			_aBMJ Global Health _99581
856			_uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-2021-005739 _zDOI: 10.1136/bmjgh-2021-005739 (Open access)
942			_2ddc _cARTICLE