This research was initially motivated by a desire to understand the drivers behind the sudden surge in demand for statutory child protection investigation, as measured by client notifications to Child Youth and Family. The research was undertaken within a system-thinking framework. This entailed an iterative process of investigating the nature of the dynamics of the wider system underlying child protection, modelling this, and then testing it against organisational knowledge and through data analysis. The paper discusses the properties of the risk-screening process in child protection and it also reviews the evidence from the New Zealand situation, in particular, the pressures driving calls for increased risk assurance. A summary is given of the observations of changes in demand trends that accrued due to system pressures, and the proposed model is tested against the evidence and data analysis. The paper also summarises the model illustrating the system driving demand pressures that the child protection system is currently under. It provides an understanding of the root causes of the difficulties faced in providing assurance against the risk of abuse to children through the work of statutory protection agencies. The findings suggest that the underlying problem facing child protection is the instability of the level of risk assurance demanded, and that this instability is fundamental to the nature of the child protection system.

Social Policy Journal of New Zealand, July 2006, 28: 97-132