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This article describes the principles and current practice of risk assessment of sexual offenders for extended supervision orders in New Zealand. Drawing on recent experience with expert evidence and judicial decision making in extended supervision cases, the author suggests that those involved in the process might benefit from a deeper understanding of the current state of sexual offender risk assessment provided by mental health experts. The author states that well-validated actuarial measures are available that can help distinguish between lower and higher risk offenders; static measures are now being augmented with dynamic risk factors. However, these tools must be properly administered, scored and integrated with other information. Due to the weight placed on risk assessment information in court, failure to follow standardised procedures may be worse than not using such measures. All factors contributing to a risk assessment must be explicitly stated. Terms should be used consistently, and risk categories should be qualified by probability statements giving re-offence rates for groups of similar offenders. Risk assessments should state the known contingences that will influence the degree of risk. The assessment should also specify the likely victims and severity of harm.

Journal of Child Sexual Abuse 18(2) March 2009 : 174-189